In recent years, China’s population development has entered a new stage, with shifts in population structure creating multiple pressures on economic and social development, labor supply, public service systems, and the country’s long-term competitiveness. How to recognize and respond to challenges in the population structure has become a major issue that concerns the future direction of national development.

Slowing Population Growth and Stagnation in Total Numbers

With the advancement of urbanization, increased access to education, changes in social attitudes, and rising costs of childbirth and parenting, China’s population growth rate has declined for a long period, and the number of newborns continues to decrease. Low fertility rates have become a key factor affecting population scale, and long-term low fertility may lead China into an era of negative population growth. Population stagnation or decline may result in a shrinking labor force, higher dependency pressures, and reduced economic growth potential.

Accelerating Population Aging as a Core Pressure

Aging is currently the most prominent population issue. The proportion of the elderly in China has continued to rise, with the number of people aged 60 and above increasing significantly. In the coming decades, as a large middle-aged population enters retirement, the share of the elderly is expected to increase further.

The challenges arising from aging are mainly reflected in three areas:
‎First, growing pension pressure. An increasing elderly dependency ratio adds economic burdens on families and society, placing stress on pension fund expenditures.
‎Second, reduction in labor supply. As the elderly population grows, the working-age population declines, making it difficult to sustain the “demographic dividend” that supported China’s rapid growth in the past.
‎Third, increased pressure on healthcare and social services. The elderly have higher medical demand and a higher rate of chronic diseases, requiring stronger medical resources, community services, and eldercare support systems.

Declining Working-Age Population and Pressure on Industrial Upgrading

Changes in China’s population structure directly affect labor supply. A decreasing working-age population may lead to a tighter labor market and rising labor costs, affecting cost competitiveness in manufacturing and services. In an increasingly competitive global environment, this means that China must rely more on technological innovation and industrial upgrading to improve productivity and output per capita.

The labor shortage is not only a quantitative problem but also a skills mismatch. Future development requires more highly skilled workers, researchers, and innovative talent. However, gaps remain in education, training, and talent development, making the improvement of the talent cultivation and lifelong learning systems an urgent task.

Complex Causes Behind Low Fertility and Persistently Low Birth Intentions

China’s low fertility rate has become a long-term trend, caused by multiple factors:

High costs of childbirth and child-rearing. Housing, education, and childcare expenses are major reasons young people hesitate to have children.

Insufficient childcare support systems. Limited childcare services and insufficient workplace protections increase pressure on women of childbearing age.

Changing values and lifestyles. Many young people increasingly prioritize personal growth and life quality and are less willing to bear the financial and time costs of parenting.

Changing family structures. Smaller households and declining intergenerational support increase parenting burdens on young couples.

If low fertility continues, aging will worsen, and negative population growth will arrive sooner.

Noticeable Regional Imbalances in Population Distribution

Population change also appears in growing regional disparities. Large cities and coastal regions continue to attract population, while central, western, and some northeastern regions see population outflow and loss of young talent. While mobility follows economic logic:

Regions losing workers may face declining economic vitality.

Megacities experience greater stress on housing, transportation, education, and governance.

Thus, promoting balanced development and rational labor allocation is a key element of population strategy.

Policy Directions to Address Population Structural Challenges

China has proactively adjusted policies, and future efforts may focus on:

Increasing birth intentions and reducing child-raising burdens.

Expanding public childcare and preschool services

Improving maternity and parental leave policies

Reducing burdens in housing, healthcare, and education

Promoting parent-friendly workplace systems

Extending working years and improving labor productivity.

Pension system reforms and gradual delayed retirement

Strengthening vocational training and workforce upskilling

Promoting technological innovation and automation

Enhancing pension and healthcare systems.

Building multi-level pension systems

Developing community-based elderly care and healthcare integration

Expanding long-term care insurance pilots

Optimizing regional population distribution.

Supporting industrial development and job creation in the central and western regions

Improving education and healthcare conditions in medium- and small-sized cities

Promoting balanced population mobility and distribution

Population structural change is a recurring issue in societal development and an inevitable stage of modernization. Facing challenges such as low fertility, aging, and shrinking labor supply, China must coordinate population policy reform, industrial upgrading, social security development, and regional growth strategies.

With active responses and continuous reform, China has the capacity to turn challenges into new opportunities and lay a stable demographic foundation for future development.